Thursday, February 15, 2007

Kimberley: hot on the rise, cold on the set

Well after my hard disk on my computer over-heated due to global warming (well not really), I’ve managed to get the data again and re-write the programs that spit out all the fancy nice graphs. And it’s onto the next great section of Australia, the Kimberly’s, located in the north-west section of Australia. It has been of late the talk of the town as far as rainfall is going, with many people saying that global warming has effected this area in that greater amounts of rainfall has fallen here of late.

I anyone has ever been to the Kimberly’s, this is no doubt a great thing, as it’s a very dry barren place, but astonishingly beautiful at the same time. Anyone onto the stats. Here we have 3 stations of significance, Derby, Broome and Halls Creek.

Analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures shows no increase (max: t = -0.34, p = 0.73; min: t = 1.65, p = 0.09) at the 5% level of significance.

When analyzing at different times we come across some interesting pieces of information. All of Midnight (t = -0.19, p = 0.84), 3am, (t = -0.02, p = 0.98), 6am (t = 0.14, p = 0.88), Noon (t = 0.08, p = 0.93) and 3pm (t = -0.84, p = 0.4) show no significant increase or decrease in temperatures. Data was not long enough for 9pm to show any long term trends.

However at 9am we did find a significant increase in temperatures (t = 2.11, p = 0.035), which is becoming more and more common at this time when the sun rises. Surprisingly at around sunset (6pm) we actually found a significant decrease in temperature (t = -2.98, p = 0.003) at the rate of 1.2 degrees per century.

So what does this mean for the Kimberley? Well it means it’s getting hotter as soon as the sun rises, and it’s getting cooler as soon as the sun sets. At all other times, no significant change has occurred. Interesting.

And for those who are interested in rainfall up this way, we have seen some bigger drops of rainfall up this direction, especially in the last 10 years, and yes, that increase is significant (t = 2.95, p = 0.003). If you know much about the north end of Australia you will know that 57% of all rainfall occurs in Jan/Feb, with a further 27% occurring in Mar/Dec. If you see any rain in August is an amazing rarity. Interesting my analysis suggests that the increase in rain has occurred mostly in the wet season, with no real changes in the dry.

Yep, Kimberley is hot


Agmates said...

G'day Jonathan. Read your post on the Kimberly. Great stuff, also quoted you in my Blog the other day
Really enjoyed your criptic post on 1966 yesterday, although not everybody appeared to get it - ?

Jonathan Lowe said...

Thanks Agmates,
had a look at your website. Nice work. And based on comments, it looks as though some people didn't see the message in the 1966 post